When Did NHL Teams Draft the Biggest Skaters?

Question

Draft rooms have always loved the language of size: frame, reach, length, projectable build. But was the league always equally obsessed with bigger skaters, or did that preference peak in a particular era?

This article uses nhlscraper::draft_picks() to turn that old scouting cliché into a measurable history. The mini research question is:

When was the NHL draft most tilted toward bigger skaters, especially in the first round?

We will keep the analysis intentionally simple: height, weight, round, position, and draft year. That is enough to show how the top of the draft board changed over time.

Build Sample

We keep skaters from 1979 onward, drop goalies, require measured height and weight, and limit the comparison to Rounds 1 through 7 so older marathon drafts do not distort the later-round pool.

# Pull draft picks.
draft_tbl <- nhlscraper::draft_picks()

# Keep modern skater sample.
draft_tbl <- draft_tbl[
  draft_tbl[['draftYear']] >= 1979 &
    draft_tbl[['roundNumber']] <= 7 &
    draft_tbl[['positionCode']] != 'G' &
    !is.na(draft_tbl[['height']]) &
    !is.na(draft_tbl[['weight']]),
  ,
  drop = FALSE
]

# Create analysis buckets.
draft_tbl[['roundBucket']] <- ifelse(
  draft_tbl[['roundNumber']] == 1,
  'Round 1',
  'Rounds 2-7'
)
draft_tbl[['era']] <- cut(
  draft_tbl[['draftYear']],
  breaks = c(1978, 1989, 1999, 2009, 2019, Inf),
  labels = c(
    '1979-1989',
    '1990-1999',
    '2000-2009',
    '2010-2019',
    '2020-present'
  )
)
draft_tbl[['positionBucket']] <- ifelse(
  draft_tbl[['positionCode']] == 'D',
  'Defense',
  'Forward'
)
draft_tbl[['tallSkater']] <- draft_tbl[['height']] >= 74
draft_tbl[['bigSkater']] <- draft_tbl[['height']] >= 74 &
  draft_tbl[['weight']] >= 205
nrow(draft_tbl)
#> [1] 8357

That gives us 8357 drafted skaters. The sample is broad enough to study eras, but narrow enough that “later round” means roughly the same thing across modern draft history.

First Look: Era and Round

If size was truly prized near the top of the board, first-round skaters should be bigger than later-round skaters in most eras.

# Summarize size by era and round bucket.
era_summary <- aggregate(
  cbind(height, weight, tallSkater, bigSkater) ~ era + roundBucket,
  data = draft_tbl,
  FUN = mean
)
era_counts <- aggregate(
  height ~ era + roundBucket,
  data = draft_tbl,
  FUN = length
)
names(era_counts)[names(era_counts) == 'height'] <- 'n'
era_summary <- merge(
  era_summary,
  era_counts,
  by = c('era', 'roundBucket')
)
era_summary <- era_summary[, c(
  'era',
  'roundBucket',
  'n',
  'height',
  'weight',
  'tallSkater',
  'bigSkater'
)]
make_table(
  era_summary,
  caption = 'Drafted skater size by era and draft bucket.',
  digits = 3
)
Drafted skater size by era and draft bucket.
era roundBucket n height weight tallSkater bigSkater
1979-1989 Round 1 226 72.934 200.659 0.363 0.221
1979-1989 Rounds 2-7 1225 72.509 193.566 0.322 0.153
1990-1999 Round 1 232 74.060 209.534 0.608 0.500
1990-1999 Rounds 2-7 1405 73.260 197.044 0.433 0.224
2000-2009 Round 1 278 73.694 203.086 0.536 0.349
2000-2009 Rounds 2-7 1693 73.162 195.432 0.435 0.214
2010-2019 Round 1 296 72.889 189.757 0.368 0.132
2010-2019 Rounds 2-7 1609 72.575 186.634 0.331 0.093
2020-present Round 1 217 73.157 189.281 0.424 0.124
2020-present Rounds 2-7 1176 73.038 186.145 0.419 0.120

The first-round premium is visible almost everywhere, but the 1990s and 2000s stand out. That was the period when spending a premium pick on a bigger skater looked most normal. The modern top of the board is still not small, but it is not the same size arms race.

Plot the Size Cycle

A rolling average makes the shape easier to see than era bins alone.

# Compute annual first-round and later-round height.
annual_height <- aggregate(
  height ~ draftYear + roundBucket,
  data = draft_tbl,
  FUN = mean
)
annual_height <- annual_height[order(
  annual_height[['roundBucket']],
  annual_height[['draftYear']]
), ]
annual_height[['rollHeight']] <- ave(
  annual_height[['height']],
  annual_height[['roundBucket']],
  FUN = function(x) as.numeric(stats::filter(x, rep(1 / 5, 5), sides = 2))
)
round_one <- annual_height[annual_height[['roundBucket']] == 'Round 1', ]
later_rounds <- annual_height[annual_height[['roundBucket']] == 'Rounds 2-7', ]
graphics::plot(
  round_one[['draftYear']],
  round_one[['rollHeight']],
  type = 'l',
  lwd = 2.5,
  col = '#003049',
  ylim = range(annual_height[['rollHeight']], na.rm = TRUE),
  xlab = 'Draft Year',
  ylab = 'Average Height (Inches)'
)
graphics::lines(
  later_rounds[['draftYear']],
  later_rounds[['rollHeight']],
  lwd = 2.5,
  col = '#f77f00'
)
graphics::abline(v = c(1990, 2000, 2010, 2020), lty = 3, col = '#adb5bd')
graphics::legend(
  'topright',
  legend = c('Round 1', 'Rounds 2-7'),
  col = c('#003049', '#f77f00'),
  lwd = 2.5,
  bty = 'n'
)
Five-draft rolling average height by draft bucket.

Five-draft rolling average height by draft bucket.

The graph has a real arc: build up, peak, cool down. The first-round line rises hardest into the 1990s and remains elevated into the 2000s. Later rounds follow the same broad climate, but less aggressively. That is the fingerprint of a top-of-board preference rather than a league-wide measurement artifact.

Tall Is One Thing; Big Is Another

Height alone can make a player sound physically imposing. Weight adds another dimension. Here we ask how often teams drafted skaters who were both at least 6-foot-2 and at least 205 pounds.

# Summarize big-skater share by era and round bucket.
big_share <- aggregate(
  bigSkater ~ era + roundBucket,
  data = draft_tbl,
  FUN = mean
)
big_share <- merge(
  big_share,
  era_counts,
  by = c('era', 'roundBucket')
)
big_share <- big_share[
  order(big_share[['era']], big_share[['roundBucket']]),
]
make_table(
  big_share,
  caption = 'Share of drafted skaters at least 6-foot-2 and 205 pounds.',
  digits = 3
)
Share of drafted skaters at least 6-foot-2 and 205 pounds.
era roundBucket bigSkater n
1979-1989 Round 1 0.221 226
1979-1989 Rounds 2-7 0.153 1225
1990-1999 Round 1 0.500 232
1990-1999 Rounds 2-7 0.224 1405
2000-2009 Round 1 0.349 278
2000-2009 Rounds 2-7 0.214 1693
2010-2019 Round 1 0.132 296
2010-2019 Rounds 2-7 0.093 1609
2020-present Round 1 0.124 217
2020-present Rounds 2-7 0.120 1176 
# Plot big-skater share by era.
round_levels <- c('Round 1', 'Rounds 2-7')
big_matrix <- rbind(
  big_share[['bigSkater']][big_share[['roundBucket']] == round_levels[1]],
  big_share[['bigSkater']][big_share[['roundBucket']] == round_levels[2]]
)
graphics::barplot(
  big_matrix,
  beside = TRUE,
  col = c('#2d6a4f', '#95d5b2'),
  border = NA,
  ylim = c(0, max(big_matrix, na.rm = TRUE) * 1.25),
  names.arg = levels(draft_tbl[['era']]),
  las = 2,
  ylab = 'Share of Big Skaters'
)
graphics::legend(
  'topright',
  legend = round_levels,
  fill = c('#2d6a4f', '#95d5b2'),
  bty = 'n'
)
Share of big skaters by era and round bucket.

Share of big skaters by era and round bucket.

This version makes the first-round story louder. Bigger bodies were not merely available in the draft pool; teams were more willing to spend their most valuable picks on them during the peak-size era.

Separate Defensemen From Forwards

The obvious objection is positional mix. Defensemen are bigger than forwards, so maybe the era pattern is just a defenseman pattern. We can split the sample by position family before jumping to conclusions.

# Summarize size by era and position family.
position_summary <- aggregate(
  cbind(height, weight, bigSkater) ~ era + positionBucket,
  data = draft_tbl,
  FUN = mean
)
position_counts <- aggregate(
  height ~ era + positionBucket,
  data = draft_tbl,
  FUN = length
)
names(position_counts)[names(position_counts) == 'height'] <- 'n'
position_summary <- merge(
  position_summary,
  position_counts,
  by = c('era', 'positionBucket')
)
make_table(
  position_summary,
  caption = 'Drafted skater size by era and position family.',
  digits = 3
)
Drafted skater size by era and position family.
era positionBucket height weight bigSkater n
1979-1989 Defense 73.139 198.336 0.224 518
1979-1989 Forward 72.262 192.636 0.130 933
1990-1999 Defense 74.088 203.200 0.358 589
1990-1999 Forward 72.972 196.349 0.210 1048
2000-2009 Defense 73.915 201.045 0.325 714
2000-2009 Forward 72.852 193.936 0.181 1257
2010-2019 Defense 73.255 190.180 0.128 713
2010-2019 Forward 72.246 185.289 0.081 1192
2020-present Defense 73.907 191.004 0.177 504
2020-present Forward 72.575 184.156 0.089 889

Defensemen are bigger in every era, as expected. But the 1990s/2000s pattern does not vanish. The draft’s size cycle shows up inside position families, not only because teams drafted more defensemen.

Estimate First-Round Premium

A simple model helps summarize the top-of-board effect while controlling for position and broad era.

# Fit height model.
height_fit <- stats::lm(
  height ~ era + I(roundNumber == 1) + positionBucket,
  data = draft_tbl
)
height_fit_tbl <- as.data.frame(summary(height_fit)$coefficients)
height_fit_tbl[['term']] <- rownames(height_fit_tbl)
rownames(height_fit_tbl) <- NULL
height_fit_tbl <- height_fit_tbl[, c(
  'term',
  'Estimate',
  'Std. Error',
  't value',
  'Pr(>|t|)'
)]
make_table(
  height_fit_tbl,
  caption = 'Linear model of drafted skater height.',
  digits = 4
)
Linear model of drafted skater height.
term Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
(Intercept) 73.1966 0.0603 1213.5937 0.0000
era1990-1999 0.8028 0.0716 11.2095 0.0000
era2000-2009 0.6635 0.0687 9.6574 0.0000
era2010-2019 0.0303 0.0692 0.4378 0.6615
era2020-present 0.4767 0.0745 6.3988 0.0000
I(roundNumber == 1)TRUE 0.4803 0.0610 7.8775 0.0000
positionBucketForward -1.0834 0.0452 -23.9756 0.0000

The model is not meant to be a final draft theory. It is a compact check on the pattern. The first-round coefficient stays positive after accounting for era and position family, which matches the visual story: teams have historically paid a premium for size near the top of the board.

What We Learned

The draft’s size preference looks cyclical, not linear. The 1990s and 2000s were the loudest size eras in this sample, especially in Round 1. Since then, the top of the board has become less extreme, even though first-round skaters remain bigger than later-round skaters on average.

That is the useful lesson for nhlscraper: a simple endpoint like draft_picks() can answer a surprisingly rich historical question when you reshape it carefully. The package gives you the raw ingredients; the fun starts when you turn those ingredients into a hockey argument someone would actually want to debate.